EOB Morning Setup 5K — Strategy Analysis

Executive Summary

As-traded results from the log, then what the same 876 entries would have produced under different exit rules. Every simulated number below comes from the recorded Max RR (max favourable excursion) — no new price data is assumed.

The strategy is barely profitable as traded

The entries are fine. The exits are the problem.

Concentration risk — Friday carries the book

Equity Curve

Cumulative net P&L (after brokerage) in trade sequence.

Performance by Index

Same setup, three underlyings. BANKNIFTY is the only one that made money as traded.

Performance by Day of Week

The single largest effect in the dataset. Expiry-day behaviour dominates.

Index × Day Heatmap

Net P&L per cell. Green = profitable, red = loss. Cell subtext is trade count / win rate. Use this to kill specific combinations, not whole days.

Max Favourable Excursion — the core finding

How far each trade went in your favour before it resolved. This is what makes exit optimisation possible without re-simulating price.

Give-back is the leak

Exit Rule Optimisation

Two independent levers. BE@xR = move stop to breakeven once the trade reaches x R (turns a would-be loser into a scratch). T xR = take profit at x R. Best row highlighted.

Robustness Checks

A rule that only works on the sample it was fitted to is worthless. These are the tests that decide whether the optimisation is real.

Walk-Forward (in-sample vs out-of-sample)

Incremental Filter Build-Up

Each row adds one rule on top of the previous. The ex-Friday column is the honesty check: if a rule only survives because of Friday, it is not a rule.

Monthly P&L

Other Cross-Sections

Entry Time Bucket

Option Side

Trade Sequence Within Day

Exit Reason

Monte Carlo — Sequence Risk

10,000 bootstrap resamples of the trade sequence on ₹2,00,000 starting capital. Your backtest is one ordering of these trades; this shows the other orderings you could just as easily have lived through.

Ruin risk as traded

Position Sizing Sensitivity

Fixed-fractional risk per trade on the optimised exit rule. Net P&L scales linearly; drawdown scales linearly too — so this is purely a question of what drawdown you can sit through.

Recommendations

Trade Log